Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	237	22	31	5	3	.150	.249	.257	.506
2025	569	80	118	16	6	.234	.316	.401	.717
2026	699	104	147	33	21	.251	.361	.476	.837
5 Seasons	1859	246	354	62	34	.221	.320	.400	.720

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

84

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

84

Defense4 metrics

42

Speed4 metrics

72

Plate skills10 metrics

45

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.319
xwOBA current pace	0.378
xwOBA rolling p50	0.364
Observed weight	77%

xwOBA

0.344 0.354 0.364 0.375 0.384

wOBA

0.356 0.367 0.379 0.391 0.402

ISO

0.187 0.197 0.208 0.219 0.229

K%

16.8% 17.5% 18.4% 19.2% 20.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.6%

92 +39 vs proj

Exit velocity90.1

79

Hard-hit%43.8%

76 +38 vs proj

xBA0.337

72

xSLG0.635

87

xwOBA0.378

98 +44 vs proj

BB%14.3%

96 +26 vs proj

Bat speed71.9

79

K%17.9%

78

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · 3B

58

Arm Strength86.9 · 3B

48

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

47

Range Runs-5.0 · 3B

14

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs2.0 · 3B

80

Bolts4.0 · 3B

39

SB Success Rate93.8% · 3B

86

Sprint Speed28.6 · 3B

82

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.0% · rebadged research

96

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8% · rebadged research

83

Correct Decisions73.4% · rebadged research

97

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline

26

Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated

15

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114

97

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample

13

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.313 · validated thin sample

5

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample

14

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated

9

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Miguel Vargas's production (87) outpaces the tools grade (71) by 16 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-11.5° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.379

xwOBA (deserved)0.378

Vargas’s wOBA sits at 0.379, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.378 — a gap of 0.001, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 721 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Bleday, JJ CIN · L	0.71	Bat speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R	0.64	Max exit velocityxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Rice, Ben NYY · L	0.61	Oppo rateSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Grisham, Trent NYY · L	0.59	Pull rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	14	2026-09-19	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	23	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.148

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.306 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB
2026-04-17 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-14 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, R

Age	26
Height	6' 2"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2022-08-03

xwOBA Δ	+0.072
wOBA Δ	+0.073

Hitter Projections 20260.306 xwOBA \| 14 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ SEA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB
2026-04-17 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-04-14 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| BB, R

Miguel Vargas

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail