Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	209	15	40	3	0	.208	.268	.333	.601
2025	457	61	115	25	5	.288	.368	.544	.912
2026	512	57	107	21	1	.239	.331	.459	.790
5 Seasons	1309	145	287	52	6	.248	.327	.454	.781

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

89

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

78

Defense4 metrics

36

Speed1 metrics

22

Plate skills10 metrics

47

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.320
xwOBA current pace	0.329
xwOBA rolling p50	0.326
Observed weight	70%

xwOBA

0.304 0.315 0.326 0.338 0.348

wOBA

0.324 0.337 0.351 0.365 0.378

ISO

0.182 0.194 0.207 0.220 0.232

K%

27.4% 28.6% 29.9% 31.2% 32.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.2%

82

Exit velocity92.5

96

Hard-hit%56.8%

99

xBA0.354

86

xSLG0.682

93

xwOBA0.329

76

BB%10.1%

69

Bat speed73.2

90

K%31.1%

13

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B

20

Arm Strength93.9 · 1B

92

Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B

8

Range Runs-2.8 · 1B

26

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed26.3 · 1B

22

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research

25

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.0% · rebadged research

96

Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research

60

Resists FastballwOBA 0.294 · validated

98

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

66

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline

8

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample

1

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample

87

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample

13

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

16

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Kyle Stowers's tools (69) and production (70) are aligned. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

175 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.351

xwOBA (deserved)0.329

Stowers’s wOBA sits at 0.351, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.329 — a gap of 0.022, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 517 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Lowe, Brandon PIT · L	0.78	Pull rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
Mayo, Coby BAL · R	0.60	Strikeout rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.59	Fly-ball rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Pederson, Joc TEX · L	0.59	Barrel rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	8	2026-09-22	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	17	2026-09-23	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.626

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.323 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 R

Age	28
Height	6' 2"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2022-06-13

xwOBA Δ	+0.006
wOBA Δ	+0.029

Hitter Projections 20260.323 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 R

Kyle Stowers

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail