Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 185 lb |
| Debut | 2021-08-17 |
Player profile / Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez
SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 27
Club Miami Marlins
Position SS
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 434 | 49 | 109 | 6 | 20 | .270 | .313 | .377 | .690 |
| 2025 | 594 | 66 | 134 | 15 | 15 | .246 | .305 | .368 | .673 |
| 2026 | 682 | 93 | 189 | 11 | 34 | .304 | .349 | .437 | .786 |
| 5 Seasons | 1721 | 208 | 438 | 32 | 69 | .277 | .327 | .399 | .726 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.319
0.329
0.339
0.348
wOBA
0.344
0.355
0.368
0.380
0.391
ISO
0.124
0.133
0.142
0.152
0.160
K%
11.7%
12.4%
13.3%
14.1%
14.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
51
Exit velocity88.6
59
Hard-hit%41.2%
64
+17 vs proj
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.489
46
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%5.7%
20
Bat speed69.5
48
K%13.0%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
95
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg14.0 · SS
97
Range Runs10.1 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.0 · SS
96
Bolts4.0 · SS
39
SB Success Rate84.8% · SS
62
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.332 · borderline
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385 · validated
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.406 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lopez’s wOBA sits at 0.368, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.039, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 698 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garcia, Maikel KC · R | 0.69 | Pull rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Ortiz, Joey MIL · R | 0.68 | Chase rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Bohm, Alec PHI · R | 0.66 | xwOBA on contactIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.65 | Barrel rateChase rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-07-05 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 28 | 2026-09-25 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.757 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA | 12 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | K |
| 2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 |
| 2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs MIL1 HR | 2 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | HR, 3B, 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HBP, 2 K, R |