Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-12 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-12
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-13 Older: 2026-09-11

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-27 2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Riley Greene

Play

DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 37.3
Odds / Gap +445 / +4.54%
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.111x

Value Rank #2

Bryan Reynolds

Play

PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes

Value Score 27.0
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.13%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.138x

Value Rank #3

Spencer Torkelson

Lean

DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 23.0
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.68%
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.111x

Value Rank #4

Brandon Nimmo

Lean

TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt

Value Score 21.2
Odds / Gap +515 / +3.88%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+8.97%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+8.85%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+8.85%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+7.46%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+7.30%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+7.25%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+6.45%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.45%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+6.35%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.13%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+6.04%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.04%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.86%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.80%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.73%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.79%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.66%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.66%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.14%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+5.14%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.80%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.36%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+4.94%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+4.82%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+4.82%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+4.70%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+4.54%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.54%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+4.65%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+4.55%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+4.55%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+4.54%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+4.37%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+4.20%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.41%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.34%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.34%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+4.37%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+4.26%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+4.20%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.32%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.32%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.32%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.30%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.18%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.18%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.28%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.18%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.18%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.15%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.81%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.37%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.01%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.90%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.90%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.88%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.75%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.61%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+3.73%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+3.59%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+3.54%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.68%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.54%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+3.40%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.63%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.63%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.63%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -865
+2.88%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -920
+2.88%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.78%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.72%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.60%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.60%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+2.72%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+2.61%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+2.61%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.67%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.59%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.59%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.28%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.18%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.18%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+2.12%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.97%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.97%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+2.06%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+1.73%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.73%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+1.77%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+1.68%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+1.68%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
+1.76%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
+1.56%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+1.35%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+1.71%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+1.60%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+1.60%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.64%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.47%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.30%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+1.58%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+1.46%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+1.46%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+1.57%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.46%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.46%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+1.46%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+1.32%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+1.27%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.29%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.12%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.08%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+0.89%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.57%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.57%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.88%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.75%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.75%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.79%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.60%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.41%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.59%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.09%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.5
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+0.48%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+0.34%
16.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+0.20%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.39%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.62%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.68%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.27%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.27%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.27%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.00%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.17%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.35%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.02%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.19%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.37%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.15%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.15%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.48%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.48%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.48%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.64%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.64%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.64%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.4
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.67%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-0.89%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.12%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.68%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.82%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.82%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.77%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.98%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.19%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.83%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.14%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.14%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.89%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.83%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.47%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.94%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.88%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.39%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.97%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.84%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.32%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.05%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.94%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.19%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.05%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.81%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-2.31%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.29%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.60%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.60%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.35%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.78%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.00%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 481
Latest Date 2026-09-27
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 14 / 73
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 183 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 49
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%