{ "date": "2026-09-12", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-12T23:48:20.069167", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-12", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 108 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 180, "matched_count": 180, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 180, "matched_rows": 180, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 72, "under_recommendation_count": 4, "strong_count": 6, "play_count": 23, "lean_count": 47, "no_play_count": 104, "average_edge_over": 0.0144, "average_edge_under": -0.0521, "value_play_count": 4 }, "edge_count": 180, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1260, "expected_home_runs": 0.2212, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.11691, "model_over_probability": 0.1984, "model_under_probability": 0.8016, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9265, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": 0.0897, "edge_under": -0.1249, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0897, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9063, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.139, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.111, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1628, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0825, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1741, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1469, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0654, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0897, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0541, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0463, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0583, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0463, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0382, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1738, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.105, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.24, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.24, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12532304503596944, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1741, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8746769549640305, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.020323045035969448, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2212, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2212, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12520691242346793, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8747930875765321, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.020206912423467935, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0825, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0825, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9175, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0262, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04282304503596944, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1741, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0654, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0463, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1335, "expected_home_runs": 0.2212, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.11691, "model_over_probability": 0.1984, "model_under_probability": 0.8016, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9303, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": 0.0885, "edge_under": -0.1287, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0885, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9063, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.139, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.111, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1628, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0825, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1741, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1469, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0642, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0885, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0529, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0451, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0451, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1738, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1057, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.24, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.24, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12532304503596944, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1741, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8746769549640305, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01962304503596944, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2212, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2212, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12520691242346793, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8747930875765321, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01950691242346793, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0825, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0825, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9175, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0274, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04282304503596944, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1741, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0642, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0451, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2212, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.11691, "model_over_probability": 0.1984, "model_under_probability": 0.8016, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0885, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0885, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9063, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.139, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.111, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1405, "expected_home_runs": 0.1608, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1485, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.082888, "model_over_probability": 0.1485, "model_under_probability": 0.8515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9336, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.047, "edge_under": -0.0821, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.047, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9649, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, 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0.1327, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1212, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1248, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1217, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1159, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0233, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0128, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0144, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1525, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1835, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1655, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1458, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0364, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0465, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0049, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0269, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1595, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1966, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1584, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1774, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.177, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1872, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1857, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1616, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.076, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0666, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0852, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0911, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1048, 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without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 70, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2534, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 41.67, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 41.67, 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1584, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1584, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8416, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1048, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026730505167266883, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1872, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.076, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0911, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1824, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1667, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.094994, "model_over_probability": 0.1667, "model_under_probability": 0.8333, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0278, "edge_under": null, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1431, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1431, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8569, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0042, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04652689644858102, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1299, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "hitter_id": 608324, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1969, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1787, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103167, "model_over_probability": 0.1787, "model_under_probability": 0.8213, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1457, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8543, "edge_over": 0.0272, "edge_under": -0.067, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0272, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, 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"valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1239, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1239, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8761, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0232, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021848810990394138, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2072, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1590, "expected_home_runs": 0.1153, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1089, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.057787, "model_over_probability": 0.1089, "model_under_probability": 0.8911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9408, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0911, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9089, "edge_over": 0.0146, "edge_under": -0.0497, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": 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0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1089, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1342, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0785, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.116, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1355, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1625, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1436, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0396, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0399, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0479, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0682, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0479, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0493, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 118, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0911, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09924864024260671, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1339, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9007513597573933, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.008148640242606711, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1153, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1153, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1201617441973343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8798382558026657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.029061744197334302, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0785, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0785, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9215, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0158, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0416617441973343, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1339, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0396, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0479, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.13069, "model_over_probability": 0.2176, "model_under_probability": 0.7824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.803, "edge_over": 0.0135, "edge_under": -0.0495, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.879, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.139, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.111, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, 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"2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1153, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1089, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.057787, "model_over_probability": 0.1089, "model_under_probability": 0.8911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0132, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the 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"hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.116768, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1788, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8212, "edge_over": 0.013, "edge_under": -0.0489, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, 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contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 124, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1788, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14647266175511306, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2084, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8535273382448869, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1188, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1188, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8812, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0664, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027672661755113057, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2084, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0232, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0061, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1092, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1034, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.05444, "model_over_probability": 0.1034, "model_under_probability": 0.8966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0129, "edge_under": -0.0478, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0129, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.004, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, 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"team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 940, "under_odds": -1680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1153, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1089, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.057787, "model_over_probability": 0.1089, "model_under_probability": 0.8911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0962, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0925, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9075, "edge_over": 0.0127, "edge_under": -0.0527, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0127, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0471, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01876949483273313, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1604, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0004, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0121, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": 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"fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0997, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0997, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9003, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0197, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03719726544270151, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0809, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1881, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1715, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.098246, "model_over_probability": 0.1715, "model_under_probability": 0.8285, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0326, "edge_under": -0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0062, 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0.06228637274619188, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0806, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9377136272538081, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.015013627253808115, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0764, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0764, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.09732072562223142, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9026792743777686, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.020020725622231422, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.142, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.142, "valinor_prob_under": 0.858, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.062, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07971362725380811, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0806, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0006, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0108, "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "hitter_id": 663538, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0764, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0736, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.036934, "model_over_probability": 0.0736, "model_under_probability": 0.9264, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0064, "edge_under": -0.0336, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.885, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.138, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1434, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1434, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8566, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0813, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01730647492160392, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1777, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1652, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1523, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085387, "model_over_probability": 0.1523, "model_under_probability": 0.8477, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0231, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0231, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.921, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.932, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, 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"valinor_prob_over": 0.1344, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1344, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8656, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.041, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.030637593075965835, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1407, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-13T03:48:07.462431+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.107588, "model_over_probability": 0.1851, "model_under_probability": 0.8149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0232, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0232, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.949, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.946, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, 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