{
  "date": "2026-06-11",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-11T08:02:38.452286",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 108,
    "odds_matched_count": 60,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 17,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824827,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2212,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.25,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2214,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823619,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2766,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2417,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824265,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2454,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2177,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_name": "Michael Busch",
      "hitter_id": 683737,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824346,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2237,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2005,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824827,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2322,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2073,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823619,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2458,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2821,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.246,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
      "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
      "hitter_id": 679529,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824265,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2411,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2144,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco",
      "hitter_id": 593871,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 823619,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2472,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2191,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823371,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2146,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2416,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2147,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-11",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824827,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2141,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1929,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.21,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2212,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Michael Busch",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2458,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Spencer Torkelson",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Polanco",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.219,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2146,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.21
      }
    ]
  }
}