Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-18 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-18
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-19 Older: 2026-09-15

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Brandon Nimmo

Lean

TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease

Value Score 21.0
Odds / Gap +515 / +3.85%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.093x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+7.72%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+5.87%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-10.80%
31.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.37%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+6.29%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.29%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+6.27%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+6.11%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+6.11%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.2
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+6.08%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+6.02%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+6.02%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+5.89%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+5.89%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+5.81%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.8
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+5.84%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+5.70%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+5.65%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+5.30%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+5.22%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.22%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.11%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+5.11%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.03%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+5.10%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+5.10%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.01%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+4.98%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+4.98%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+4.91%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+4.61%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+4.61%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.61%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+4.49%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.42%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.42%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+4.46%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.39%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.39%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.41%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.34%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.34%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.01%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.90%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.90%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.85%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.72%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.58%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.75%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+3.75%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
+2.68%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-7.06%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.21%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+3.10%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+3.10%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+3.16%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.02%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.02%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.13%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.00%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.88%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.09%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.97%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.97%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+2.72%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
+1.54%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-5.84%
23.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.54%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.23%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.23%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.54%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+2.54%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+2.44%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.51%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.38%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.26%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.28%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.18%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.18%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+2.23%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
+1.14%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-5.61%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+2.22%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+2.13%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+2.13%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+2.12%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.96%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+1.87%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.10%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.01%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.01%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.05%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+1.97%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+1.97%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.84%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.84%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.84%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
+1.52%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
+1.32%
8.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
+1.25%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+1.50%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+1.39%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+1.39%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.49%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.34%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.18%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.27%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.14%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.14%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.24%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.11%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.11%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+1.14%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.00%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.86%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.12%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+0.99%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.99%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.94%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.02%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-4.33%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+0.89%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.56%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.56%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+0.66%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+0.51%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+0.46%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.64%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.64%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.64%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+0.44%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+0.44%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+0.44%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.34%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.16%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.84%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.1
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.20%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.04%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.13%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.05%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.05%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.05%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.5
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.45%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.21%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-3.07%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.48%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.79%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.79%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.74%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.05%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.05%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
-0.78%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
-0.94%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.94%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.86%
17.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.67%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.56%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.89%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.83%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.47%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.02%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.18%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.18%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.05%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.94%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.19%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.34%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.74%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.95%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-1.35%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-1.86%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-2.02%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.49%
19.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.59%
20.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.70%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.55%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.55%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.87%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 480
Latest Date 2026-09-26
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 40
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 333 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 75 / 77
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 33.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%