{
  "date": "2026-09-18",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T23:44:29.622271",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 117,
    "odds_matched_count": 60,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 21,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823898,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2093,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.189,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.64,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824138,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2123,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1914,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.39,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822847,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1999,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.31,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822847,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2012,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824463,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1741,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1913,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1743,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.23,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825032,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1947,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.177,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
      "hitter_id": 650490,
      "team": "TB",
      "team_abbr": "TB",
      "opponent": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BOS",
      "game_id": 822923,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2042,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1849,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 661388,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824790,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 645,
      "over_odds": 645,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1852,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2048,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1853,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman",
      "hitter_id": 696100,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824303,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1762,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1617,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.25,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823331,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1665,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1821,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1666,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.64
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.39
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.31
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1741,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.23
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1769,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.72
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
        "team": "TB",
        "opponent": "BOS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 40.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "William Contreras",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 645,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1852,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 39.25
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1665,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.95
      }
    ]
  }
}