Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-03-25 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-03-25

0 activated plays

Gap rows 42

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-03-26 Older: 2026-03-24

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.97%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 22.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +215 / U -255

+5.97%

30.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +225 / U -275

+4.47%

29.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +220 / U --

-9.05%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 95.9

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +400 / U -510

+1.50%

19.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +410 / U -545

+0.61%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

-4.91%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 97.8

Ben Rice

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.57%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+0.57%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+0.41%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+0.24%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Willy Adames

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -565

+0.53%

17.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +450 / U -605

-0.33%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-3.84%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 99.7

Trent Grisham

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -635

+0.48%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -595

+0.32%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

+0.32%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Heliot Ramos

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+0.06%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -770

-0.05%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

-0.05%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Matt Chapman

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.02%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+0.02%

16.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +495 / U -685

-0.75%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-3.46%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8

Rafael Devers

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-0.09%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-0.98%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-3.26%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Luis Arraez

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 4.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.19%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.69%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-3.31%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 100.8

José Caballero

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.52%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +985 / U -1645

-0.52%

8.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +960 / U -1735

-0.80%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +965 / U --

-3.14%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.4

Tyler Fitzgerald

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.59%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -890

-0.59%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +635 / U -945

-1.12%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

-2.92%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 102.3

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -590

-0.65%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -630

-1.44%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

-2.72%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.1

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 24.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +295 / U -370

-0.65%

24.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +290 / U --

-0.97%

DraftKings

0.5

O +285 / U -345

-1.30%

25.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Jung Hoo Lee

SF vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -0.96%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.96%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.96%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.96%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396

Latest Date 2026-06-19

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-06-19 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 45 / 85 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 30.8	-- Signals --
2026-06-18 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 43 / 45 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 52.3	-- Signals --
2026-06-17 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	225 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 79 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bo Bichette \| 55.2	-- Signals --
2026-06-16 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	336 matched 0 unmatched	2 / 71 / 92 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 38.7	-- Signals --
2026-06-15 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	168 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 29 / 36 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 39.6	-- Signals --
2026-06-14 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	390 matched 0 unmatched	53 / 83 / 83 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 55.4	-- Signals --
2026-06-13 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 53 / 87 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 51.9	-- Signals --
2026-06-12 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	249 matched 0 unmatched	24 / 76 / 48 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.3	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%