{ "date": "2026-03-24", "generated_at": "2026-03-24T10:46:41.481430", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic", "projection_date": "2026-03-24", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 219, "matched_count": 219, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 219, "matched_rows": 219, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 53, "under_recommendation_count": 0, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 21, "lean_count": 32, "no_play_count": 166, "average_edge_over": 0.0056, "average_edge_under": -0.0432, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 219, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7792, "edge_over": 0.0622, "edge_under": -0.1034, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0622, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 69.2, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0595, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0595, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 67.9, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7727, "edge_over": 0.0568, "edge_under": -0.0921, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0568, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.031, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 66.5, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Pepiot", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.3078, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2649, "model_over_probability": 0.2649, "model_under_probability": 0.7351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": 0.0566, "edge_under": -0.0968, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0566, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 59.1, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2576, "model_over_probability": 0.2576, "model_under_probability": 0.7424, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1943, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8057, "edge_over": 0.0556, "edge_under": -0.095, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0556, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 55.0, "value_rank": 11, "value_box_rank": 5, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Pepiot", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3078, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2649, "model_over_probability": 0.2649, "model_under_probability": 0.7351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0544, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0544, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 58.3, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Pepiot", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -460, "expected_home_runs": 0.3078, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2649, "model_over_probability": 0.2649, "model_under_probability": 0.7351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2058, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7942, "edge_over": 0.0521, "edge_under": -0.0863, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0521, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": 57.6, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Justin Verlander", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2748, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "model_over_probability": 0.2403, "model_under_probability": 0.7597, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": 0.0516, "edge_under": -0.091, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0516, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.117, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.13, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": 44.7, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2576, "model_over_probability": 0.2576, "model_under_probability": 0.7424, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0514, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0514, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 54.4, "value_rank": 12, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2699, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2365, "model_over_probability": 0.2365, "model_under_probability": 0.7635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0496, "edge_under": -0.0894, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0496, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.183, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.13, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": 42.2, "value_rank": 20, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-24T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2576, "model_over_probability": 0.2576, "model_under_probability": 0.7424, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7989, "edge_over": 0.0493, "edge_under": -0.0852, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0493, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": 54.0, "value_rank": 13, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", 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