Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2025-09-04
0 activated plays
Gap rows 216
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2025-09-05 Older: 2025-09-03

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-03 2026-07-02 2026-07-01 2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Yordan Alvarez

Play

HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 63.8
Odds / Gap +360 / +5.88%
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.996x

Value Rank #2

José Ramírez

Play

CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot

Value Score 55.0
Odds / Gap +395 / +5.56%
1+ HR 25.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.979x

Value Rank #3

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Play

NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier

Value Score 49.1
Odds / Gap +410 / +5.18%
1+ HR 24.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.996x

Value Rank #4

Marcell Ozuna

Lean

PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell

Value Score 47.1
Odds / Gap +355 / +3.34%
1+ HR 25.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.951x

Value Rank #5

Bryce Harper

Lean

PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta

Value Score 38.8
Odds / Gap +410 / +3.68%
1+ HR 23.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.033x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+5.88%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+5.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+5.40%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 25.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -515
+5.56%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +385 / U --
+5.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +380 / U -480
+4.93%
20.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -545
+5.18%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+4.99%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -510
+4.79%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Gary Sánchez headshot

Gary Sánchez
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+4.56%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+4.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+4.25%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+3.68%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+3.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
+3.29%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 25.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -460
+3.34%
21.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
+3.10%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.85%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -675
+3.10%
16.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -630
+2.96%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.96%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -820
+3.05%
14.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+2.94%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+2.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
+2.86%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -545
+2.51%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+2.84%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+2.84%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+2.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+2.82%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+2.48%
17.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+2.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+1.77%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+1.63%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+1.49%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 26.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+1.61%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
+1.29%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+0.96%
25.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.48%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.98%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 28.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -340
+1.34%
25.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
+0.98%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +265 / U -315
+0.61%
26.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.5
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+1.20%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.26%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-4.53%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.75%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.07%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-4.23%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 31.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +225 / U -275
+0.69%
29.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
+0.21%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +215 / U -255
-0.29%
30.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+0.60%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+0.54%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+0.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -810
+0.57%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+0.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -760
+0.35%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.31%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.57%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -475
+0.07%
20.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.79%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-0.10%
14.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +575 / U -820
-0.72%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
-3.34%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -795
-0.10%
14.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +585 / U -850
-0.74%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
-3.33%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.28%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.78%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Oneil Cruz headshot

Oneil Cruz
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
-0.28%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +630 / U -925
-0.83%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.33%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.51%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.69%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +300 / U -375
-0.33%
24.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-0.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -350
-1.30%
25.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
-0.39%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
-0.89%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-3.18%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
-0.42%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
-0.74%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-0.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
-0.44%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
-0.52%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-0.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
-0.52%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
-0.66%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
-0.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Andrew Vaughn headshot

Andrew Vaughn
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
-0.54%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-0.65%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-0.65%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -395
-0.61%
23.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +305 / U --
-1.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +300 / U -370
-1.51%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.70%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-0.89%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.09%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Isaac Collins headshot

Isaac Collins
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1350
-0.75%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1430
-0.92%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +850 / U --
-0.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 29.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +235 / U -290
-0.80%
28.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +230 / U --
-1.25%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +225 / U -270
-1.72%
29.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
-0.85%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -895
-0.95%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
-0.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.4
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1065
-0.86%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1130
-0.86%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
-0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.0
Kyle Teel headshot

Kyle Teel
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
-0.86%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
-0.95%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
-0.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-0.87%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.03%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.20%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Angel Martínez headshot

Angel Martínez
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
-0.89%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
-1.03%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1610
-1.08%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
-0.92%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
-1.00%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
-1.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.98%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1135 / U --
-1.08%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1125 / U -2295
-1.14%
7.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.01%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.14%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
Trent Grisham headshot

Trent Grisham
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
-1.07%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
-1.23%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.9
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
-1.09%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
-1.19%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
-1.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-1.10%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-1.42%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
-1.12%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
-1.24%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-1.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.5
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -785
-1.13%
14.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
-1.24%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -735
-1.36%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.5
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-1.14%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-1.25%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-1.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.6
Jackson Chourio headshot

Jackson Chourio
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
-1.16%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
-1.29%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-1.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.25%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.55%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-1.29%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-1.47%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-1.65%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.3
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -635
-1.31%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.47%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
-1.63%
17.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Edmundo Sosa headshot

Edmundo Sosa
PHI vs MIL | Freddy Peralta | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
-1.31%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -855
-1.41%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
-1.41%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Jake Bauers headshot

Jake Bauers
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -755
-1.31%
14.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +565 / U -805
-1.96%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
-2.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +860 / U -1345
-1.33%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +850 / U --
-1.44%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1425
-1.49%
10.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Starling Marte headshot

Starling Marte
KC vs LAA | Kyle Hendricks | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +925 / U -1500
-1.33%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +910 / U --
-1.47%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +905 / U -1585
-1.52%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Joey Bart headshot

Joey Bart
PIT vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +835 / U -1290
-1.36%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1365
-1.72%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +825 / U --
-2.26%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
-1.39%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
-1.56%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +975 / U -1790
-1.64%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.6
Will Smith headshot

Will Smith
LAD vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -800
-1.44%
14.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +590 / U -850
-1.94%
13.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
-2.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
David Fry headshot

David Fry
CLE vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -640
-1.47%
16.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-1.83%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +985 / U -1645
-1.48%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +965 / U --
-1.65%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +960 / U -1735
-1.69%
9.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -725
-1.50%
15.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +545 / U -775
-1.88%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-2.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -765
-1.57%
14.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +570 / U -815
-1.80%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
-1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Lenyn Sosa headshot

Lenyn Sosa
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -860
-1.63%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
-1.73%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
-1.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.64%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.64%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Gavin Lux headshot

Gavin Lux
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.65%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.85%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.85%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -920
-1.69%
12.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +650 / U -975
-1.84%
12.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-1.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +835 / U -1295
-1.71%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1370
-1.93%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +825 / U --
-1.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Jake Fraley headshot

Jake Fraley
TB vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +660 / U -935
-1.71%
12.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +660 / U -995
-1.79%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +660 / U --
-1.79%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 399
Latest Date 2026-07-03
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 207 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 50 / 39
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 40.3
 --
Signals --
2026-07-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 16 / 55 / 23
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-07-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 67 / 84 / 59
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Gavin Sheets | 56.5
 --
Signals --
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%