Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
56
Matched
168
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-09-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IL10
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 19.6%Palantir 14.0%market +5.6pp
P 19.6
F 16.3
V 14.4
5.1pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 9.3%market +5.1pp
P 14.4
F 15.3
V 10.6
4.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03
Evan Carter TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
 15.4%Palantir 11.0%market +4.5pp
P 15.4
F 15.3
V 11.2
4.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
04
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 17.3%Palantir 14.9%market +2.5pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 14.9
2.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
05
Jacob Wilson ATH
IL60
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 11.1%Palantir 8.7%market +2.4pp
P 11.1
F 5.3
V 10.6
5.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
06
Wyatt Langford TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 15.7%Palantir 14.4%market +1.4pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 13.8
1.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
07
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 13.9%Palantir 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 13.9
F 15.3
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
08
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 16.2%Palantir 15.6%market +0.5pp
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
09
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 5
 12.2%Palantir 11.7%market +0.5pp
P 12.2
F 13.8
V 10.3
3.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
10
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 10.5%Palantir 11.1%market -0.6pp
P 10.5
F 8.9
V 9.3
1.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
11
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 13.6%market -0.9pp
P 12.7
F 14.5
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
12
Jonathan India KC
IL60
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
 8.8%Palantir 10.0%market -1.1pp
P 8.8
F 12.0
V 12.3
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 905 avg 3 books
13
Edouard Julien COL
OUT
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 9.7%Palantir 11.3%market -1.6pp
P 9.7
F 13.3
V 11.2
3.7pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 785 avg 3 books
14
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 12.4%Palantir 14.2%market -1.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
15
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 14.1%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
16
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 15.7%Palantir 12.5%market +3.2pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
17
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 14.3%Palantir 13.7%market +0.6pp
P 14.3
F 15.3
V 12.7
2.5pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
18
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 18.0%Palantir 17.5%market +0.5pp
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 13.7
4.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
19
Trevor Larnach MIN
IL10
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7
 11.9%Palantir 12.5%market -0.6pp
P 11.9
F 13.8
V 10.0
3.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
20
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 17.0%Palantir 17.7%market -0.7pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 17.4
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
21
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 13.9%market -0.8pp
P 13.1
F 14.4
V 11.2
3.2pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
22
Edgar Quero CWS
OUT
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 6
 6.7%Palantir 8.0%market -1.3pp
P 6.7
F 12.0
V 7.4
5.3pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
23
Willi Castro COL
IL10
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 8.9%Palantir 10.3%market -1.4pp
P 8.9
F 12.0
V 10.8
3.2pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
24
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 7.7%Palantir 9.2%market -1.5pp
P 7.7
F 11.6
V 10.1
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
25
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 4
 10.6%Palantir 12.2%market -1.6pp
P 10.6
F 13.8
V 10.1
3.7pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
26
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 6
 10.2%Palantir 11.8%market -1.6pp
P 10.2
F 13.8
V 11.6
3.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
27
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 10.4%Palantir 12.5%market -2.1pp
P 10.4
F 12.2
V 12.7
2.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
28
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 10.9%Palantir 13.1%market -2.2pp
P 10.9
F 11.6
V 12.7
1.8pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 15.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.8
V 12.9
0.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 15.0%Palantir 17.7%market -2.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 17.4
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
31
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 5.2%Palantir 8.0%market -2.8pp
P 5.2
F 0.0
V 10.5
10.5pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
32
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 1
 5.1%Palantir 8.0%market -2.9pp
P 5.1
F 6.0
V 10.7
5.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
33
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 8.1%Palantir 11.0%market -2.9pp
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
9.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
34
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 1
 5.0%Palantir 8.0%market -3.0pp
P 5.0
F 7.3
V 11.2
6.3pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
35
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 6
 9.1%Palantir 12.1%market -3.0pp
P 9.1
F 0.0
V 10.8
10.8pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
36
Matt Chapman SF
IL60
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 16.7%market -3.5pp
P 13.1
F 15.3
V 12.8
2.4pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
37
Lane Thomas KC
IL10
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
 9.4%Palantir 13.0%market -3.6pp
P 9.4
F 12.0
V 16.2
6.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
38
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 18.0%market -3.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 17.5
3.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
39
Kyle Manzardo CLE
OUT
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 17.5%market -3.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.8
V 11.8
2.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
40
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 4.2%Palantir 8.0%market -3.8pp
P 4.2
F 7.3
V 10.0
5.9pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Joc Pederson TEX
IL10
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 10.7%Palantir 14.8%market -4.1pp
P 10.7
F 13.8
V 13.9
3.1pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
42
Willy Adames SF
IL10
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
 14.1%Palantir 18.4%market -4.2pp
P 14.1
F 13.8
V 13.5
0.6pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Brent Rooker ATH
IL60
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 17.2%Palantir 21.5%market -4.3pp
P 17.2
F 15.3
V 16.0
2.0pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
44
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 16.4%Palantir 21.1%market -4.7pp
P 16.4
F 15.6
V 14.4
1.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
45
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
 16.1%Palantir 20.8%market -4.8pp
P 16.1
F 14.4
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
46
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 18.0%market -4.9pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.6
1.5pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
47
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 15.1%Palantir 20.4%market -5.3pp
P 15.1
F 14.5
V 12.6
2.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
48
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 4
 14.0%Palantir 20.4%market -6.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.1
0.4pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
49
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 9.3%Palantir 15.8%market -6.4pp
P 9.3
F 13.3
V 14.0
4.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
50
Matt Wallner MIN
OUT
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 20.0%market -6.7pp
P 13.3
F 14.5
V 14.3
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
51
Rafael Devers SF
IL60
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
 12.6%Palantir 20.2%market -7.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.3
V 14.2
1.6pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
52
Byron Buxton MIN
IL10
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 12.9%Palantir 21.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 14.4
2.0pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
53
Corey Seager TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 22.5%market -8.5pp
P 14.0
F 14.4
V 15.2
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
54
Marcell Ozuna PIT
OUT
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 2
 11.8%Palantir 21.1%market -9.3pp
P 11.8
F 13.3
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
55
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 9.8%Palantir 19.2%market -9.4pp
P 9.8
F 13.3
V 14.2
4.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
56
Nick Kurtz ATH
IL60
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 17.2%Palantir 27.0%market -9.8pp
P 17.2
F 13.4
V 15.9
3.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

840 sample flags
Status1654roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.