Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home runs · three lanes per row.
Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.
HR BOARD 2026-06-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-06-01
Palantir
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.030
14d stable
Fangorn
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.009
14d error falling
Valinor
1176 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.013
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.
Home-run board
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Lineup pending | AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3 |
19.0%Palantir | 9.3%market | +9.3pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
20.4%Palantir | 11.1%market | +8.9pp |
P
20.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
9.0pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2 |
21.5%Palantir | 12.5%market | +8.6pp |
P
21.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.6pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Evan Carter
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6 |
19.2%Palantir | 11.0%market | +7.8pp |
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.3pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
21.4%Palantir | 13.9%market | +6.9pp |
P
21.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.5pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3 |
17.4%Palantir | 11.7%market | +5.3pp |
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Alec Burleson
STL
IN
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3 |
18.9%Palantir | 13.3%market | +5.1pp |
P
18.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.0pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1 |
20.0%Palantir | 14.4%market | +5.0pp |
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.7pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4 |
17.6%Palantir | 12.4%market | +4.8pp |
P
17.6
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.9pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2 |
15.2%Palantir | 10.1%market | +4.7pp |
P
15.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.0pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 11 | IN | CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4 |
18.2%Palantir | 13.0%market | +4.7pp |
P
18.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.3pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1 |
21.6%Palantir | 16.9%market | +4.1pp |
P
21.6
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.7pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 470 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3 |
20.2%Palantir | 15.6%market | +4.0pp |
P
20.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.3pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 14 | Lineup pending | AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1 |
22.0%Palantir | 17.5%market | +3.8pp |
P
22.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 450 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
20.0%Palantir | 15.6%market | +3.7pp |
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Andy Pages
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7 |
17.6%Palantir | 13.4%market | +3.7pp |
P
17.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
4.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 620 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
20.1%Palantir | 15.9%market | +3.6pp |
P
20.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 505 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
13.2%Palantir | 9.8%market | +2.9pp |
P
13.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.1pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
11.4%Palantir | 9.8%market | +1.3pp |
P
11.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
0.0pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6 |
12.5%Palantir | 10.9%market | +1.3pp |
P
12.5
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.9pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5 |
13.8%Palantir | 13.2%market | +0.1pp |
P
13.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
2.4pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 630 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
17.8%Palantir | 28.4%market | -11.6pp |
P
17.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 240 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
13.4%Palantir | 7.7%market | +5.3pp |
P
13.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
2.4pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
21.3%Palantir | 16.4%market | +4.2pp |
P
21.3
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
1.7pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1 |
14.5%Palantir | 10.0%market | +4.1pp |
P
14.5
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.2pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2 |
20.4%Palantir | 16.4%market | +3.4pp |
P
20.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.5pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6 |
9.9%Palantir | 7.7%market | +1.9pp |
P
9.9
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
1.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2 |
20.8%Palantir | 18.9%market | +1.1pp |
P
20.8
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
1.2pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 410 avg 3 books |
| 29 | IN | MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3 |
14.1%Palantir | 12.5%market | +1.1pp |
P
14.1
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.2pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
13.7%Palantir | 12.5%market | +0.7pp |
P
13.7
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
2.6pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4 |
17.4%Palantir | 16.2%market | +0.6pp |
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Victor Scott II
STL
IN
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1 |
7.7%Palantir | 7.7%market | -0.3pp |
P
7.7
F
0.0
V
0.0
|
7.7pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3 |
18.0%Palantir | 17.7%market | -0.4pp |
P
18.0
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5 |
15.8%Palantir | 16.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
15.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
1.4pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 500 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
7.1%Palantir | 7.7%market | -0.9pp |
P
7.1
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
2.4pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5 |
13.6%Palantir | 14.3%market | -1.2pp |
P
13.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.6pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1 |
6.8%Palantir | 7.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
6.8
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
2.0pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
Lineup pending
|
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2 |
19.8%Palantir | 20.5%market | -1.4pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2 |
16.4%Palantir | 17.4%market | -1.6pp |
P
16.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
0.7pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4 |
19.0%Palantir | 20.3%market | -2.1pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3 |
15.7%Palantir | 17.7%market | -2.7pp |
P
15.7
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.5pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1 |
19.1%Palantir | 23.6%market | -5.2pp |
P
19.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 310 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Jake Burger
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4 |
12.6%Palantir | 18.8%market | -6.9pp |
P
12.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.8pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 44 | IN | CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3 |
14.8%Palantir | 22.7%market | -8.7pp |
P
14.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
3.4pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
Data context
778 sample flagsStatus1566roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.