Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs MINBailey Ober
Sample2136.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.8
F 13.3
V 14.2
Model 16.0% Market 19.2% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
85
Exit velocity90.1
80
Hard-hit%46.0%
84
xBA0.325
59
xSLG0.599
80
xwOBA0.316
65
BB%9.2%
59 +42 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
K%26.6%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Range Runs0.8 · 1B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
32
Sprint Speed27.4 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8%
76
Correct Decisions64.5%
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · small sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.412
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)