Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs DETJustin Verlander
Sample1110.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.2
F 13.8
V 11.6
Model 14.2% Market 11.3% Gap +2.5pp
DraftKings 755 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.0% Market 46.2% Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 2200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
38
Exit velocity86.7
37
Hard-hit%30.3%
18 -18 vs proj
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.428
24
xwOBA0.311
58
BB%11.7%
86 +20 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
22
K%15.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-3.7 · 1B
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6%
36
Correct Decisions67.2%
61
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherJustin Verlander
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)