Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Matt Wallner

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
OUT · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 14.5
V 14.3
Model 16.4% Market 20.0% Gap -3.6pp
BetMGM 400 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 50.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 35.6% Market 36.4% Gap +14.5pp
BetMGM 175 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
68 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%42.3%
69
xBA0.358
87
xSLG0.597
79
xwOBA0.281
26 -56 vs proj
BB%7.9%
43 -36 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
89
K%37.1%
2
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · RF
15
Arm Strength99.3 · RF
88
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
6
Range Runs-3.3 · RF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · RF
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.289 to 0.384
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)