Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs DETJustin Verlander
Sample2623.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 14.5
V 14.0
Model 16.6% Market 13.1% Gap +3.1pp
DraftKings 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 31.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.9% Market 32.8% Gap +18.9pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
55
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%42.8%
71
xBA0.328
62
xSLG0.527
58
xwOBA0.317
66 -19 vs proj
BB%8.0%
43
Bat speed68.9
40
K%21.5%
58
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · 1B
4
Arm Strength84.8 · 1B
28
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Range Runs-2.9 · 1B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.9%
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
19
Correct Decisions63.8%
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.251 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.408
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.381
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherJustin Verlander
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)