Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Chase Meidroth

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs COLJose Quintana
Sample1014.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.0
F 7.3
V 11.2
Model 7.7% Market 7.7% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 41.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 41.6% Market 71.4% Gap +14.6pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 7000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
Exit velocity85.8
27
Hard-hit%35.6%
37
xBA0.319
52
xSLG0.465
37
xwOBA0.300
48
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed64.2
5
K%21.7%
57 -33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
35
Arm Strength84.8 · 2B
28
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs7.8 · 2B
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
52
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7%
14
Correct Decisions64.4%
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.066
Opposing pitcherJose Quintana
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)