Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample705.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
Model 9.5% Market 10.6% Gap -1.5pp
FanDuel 810 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 25.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.5% Market 46.2% Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 6500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
23 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
20
Hard-hit%30.5%
19
xBA0.299
29
xSLG0.441
28
xwOBA0.319
68
BB%8.9%
55 +20 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
17
K%13.8%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · 2B
2
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
84
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 2B
3
Range Runs-9.6 · 2B
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · 2B
89
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
SB Success Rate73.7% · 2B
32
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
59
Correct Decisions69.5%
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)