Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IL10 · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.4
F 12.0
V 16.2
Model 15.1% Market 12.6% Gap +2.1pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.1% Market 45.7% Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
42
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%40.8%
61
xBA0.333
69
xSLG0.511
55
xwOBA0.311
59
BB%12.2%
88 +50 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%24.9%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · CF
91
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs-6.2 · CF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
75
Bolts16.0 · CF
72
SB Success Rate85.7% · CF
66
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.240 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)