Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 13.8
V 10.0
Model 14.5% Market 12.0% Gap +2.1pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.1% Market 51.1% Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
62
Exit velocity87.5
45
Hard-hit%36.5%
41 -34 vs proj
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.497
50
xwOBA0.327
74
BB%10.2%
71
Bat speed70.2
59
K%18.0%
77 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
88
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-4.1 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
45
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8%
25
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.327 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)