Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample2020.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 17.4
Model 18.6% Market 16.7% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.6% Market 77.5% Gap +16.4pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
76
Exit velocity89.9
77
Hard-hit%42.0%
68
xBA0.308
38
xSLG0.522
57
xwOBA0.334
81
BB%10.5%
74 +30 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
41
K%15.0%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs-0.0 · 1B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B
16
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5%
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
80
Correct Decisions67.5%
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)