Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs DETJustin Verlander
Sample834.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.1
F 6.0
V 10.7
Model 5.6% Market 8.0% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 55.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.9% Market 23.8% Gap +31.7pp
BetMGM 320 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.6%
8
Exit velocity83.4
9
Hard-hit%28.1%
11 -21 vs proj
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.421
21
xwOBA0.284
29
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed64.8
6
K%20.0%
67 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
56
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs0.5 · CF
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
68
Bolts65.0 · CF
95
SB Success Rate68.4% · CF
22
Sprint Speed29.6 · CF
96
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.5%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
64
Correct Decisions60.9%
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.050
Opposing pitcherJustin Verlander
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)