Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs MINBailey Ober
Sample4307.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.4
Model 19.2% Market 15.6% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 78.5% Gap +16.7pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 7000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
73
Exit velocity92.1
94
Hard-hit%50.8%
95
xBA0.359
87
xSLG0.595
78
xwOBA0.340
85
BB%8.1%
46 -17 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%23.0%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.2 · RF
4
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
34
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
6
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
64
Bolts8.0 · RF
58
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
48
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
64
Correct Decisions69.5%
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)