Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample2396.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 13.7
Model 20.6% Market 17.5% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 50.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.7% Market 47.8% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
89
Exit velocity91.9
93
Hard-hit%49.2%
92
xBA0.339
73
xSLG0.608
82
xwOBA0.343
88
BB%11.0%
81
Bat speed74.1
95
K%22.8%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-5.5 · RF
1
Arm Strength88.7 · RF
16
Outs Above Avg11.0 · RF
99
Range Runs9.7 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs8.6 · RF
100
Bolts60.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate90.5% · RF
81
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6%
56
Correct Decisions66.9%
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.388
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)