Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Bo Naylor

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample1010.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 14.4
V 11.2
Model 16.2% Market 13.4% Gap +2.4pp
DraftKings 620 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.1% Market 46.2% Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
78
Hard-hit%43.6%
76 +22 vs proj
xBA0.296
24
xSLG0.548
65
xwOBA0.293
38
BB%7.8%
41 -20 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
K%25.0%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
56
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
26
Framing Runs-0.0 · C
50
Pop Time1.9 · C
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · C
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.261 to 0.332
RegressionPositive · 0.023
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)