Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Royce Lewis

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample1380.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.3
F 13.3
V 14.0
Model 13.9% Market 15.8% Gap -1.9pp
BetMGM 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 29.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.3% Market 50.6% Gap +0.1pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel 22500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
81
Exit velocity89.3
68
Hard-hit%39.0%
54
xBA0.328
62
xSLG0.543
65
xwOBA0.304
53
BB%7.4%
37
Bat speed72.8
88
K%25.0%
37 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 1B
56
Arm Strength83.2 · 1B
17
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
14
Range Runs-2.8 · 1B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 1B
82
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed27.7 · 1B
56
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
77
Correct Decisions65.6%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.357
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)