Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample5087.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 15.6
V 14.4
Model 19.8% Market 20.5% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 50.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.5% Market 48.3% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel -100 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
83
Exit velocity90.0
78
Hard-hit%42.3%
70 -16 vs proj
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.539
63
xwOBA0.345
90
BB%8.3%
49 -21 vs proj
Bat speed73.4
91
K%13.7%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
68
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
80
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs3.0 · 2B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 2B
58
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1%
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
43
Correct Decisions65.5%
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.008
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)