Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample2087.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.9
F 11.6
V 12.7
Model 15.1% Market 12.6% Gap +2.1pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 29.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.6% Market 30.8% Gap +21.6pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 4.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 4.4% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 2700 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53
Exit velocity85.6
25
Hard-hit%33.0%
27 -31 vs proj
xBA0.312
42
xSLG0.507
53
xwOBA0.277
24 -23 vs proj
BB%6.0%
23
Bat speed69.8
52
K%25.8%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
80
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs0.5 · SS
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · SS
76
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
68
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.2%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.2%
92
Correct Decisions62.9%
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.279
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)