Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Hunter Goodman

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample1331.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.6
Model 13.8% Market 18.0% Gap -4.2pp
BetMGM 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 32.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.2% Market 33.3% Gap +18.3pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
94
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%45.7%
83
xBA0.347
81
xSLG0.688
94
xwOBA0.321
70
BB%8.0%
43 +18 vs proj
Bat speed73.6
92
K%29.8%
17 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
38
Catcher Throwing-1.5 · C
18
Framing Runs-0.6 · C
42
Pop Time1.9 · C
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · C
10
Bolts1.0 · C
11
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
4
Sprint Speed27.3 · C
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0%
8
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
62
Correct Decisions61.3%
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.310
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.401
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.062
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)