Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs MINBailey Ober
Sample786.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 15.3
V 11.2
Model 15.1% Market 11.0% Gap +3.7pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 28.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.3% Market 29.4% Gap +23.5pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +7.5pp
FanDuel 22500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
24 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%34.8%
34
xBA0.285
17
xSLG0.447
30
xwOBA0.277
24 -43 vs proj
BB%10.8%
78 +18 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
21
K%25.8%
34 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
31
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
26
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
99
Range Runs9.6 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · CF
92
Bolts43.0 · CF
90
SB Success Rate93.8% · CF
86
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.6%
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4%
28
Correct Decisions69.4%
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)