Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jacob Wilson

ATH · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 5.3
V 10.6
Model 13.8% Market 8.7% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 1005 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 55.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.1% Market 24.1% Gap +31.2pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.394
11
xwOBA0.282
27 -33 vs proj
BB%3.4%
5
Bat speed62.6
2
K%11.1%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
74
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
81
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
94
Range Runs6.9 · SS
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · SS
11
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
38
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.7%
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
45
Correct Decisions63.3%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)