Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 26
OUT · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.8
V 11.8
Model 15.8% Market 17.1% Gap -1.8pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 52.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.2% Market 31.2% Gap +20.9pp
BetMGM 220 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
79
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%40.8%
61
xBA0.345
80
xSLG0.598
79
xwOBA0.307
54
BB%9.8%
67 +21 vs proj
Bat speed67.8
28
K%32.5%
7 -37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-3.7 · 1B
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
35
Correct Decisions65.8%
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)