Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Austin Hays

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs COLJose Quintana
Sample2504.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 13.8
V 10.3
Model 15.4% Market 11.7% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 725 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 52.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.8% Market 30.8% Gap +21.5pp
BetMGM 225 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
19 -32 vs proj
Exit velocity87.6
47
Hard-hit%42.2%
69 +20 vs proj
xBA0.391
97
xSLG0.539
62
xwOBA0.298
45 +16 vs proj
BB%2.6%
3 -18 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
61
K%24.3%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · LF
41
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.331
RegressionNegative · -0.084
Opposing pitcherJose Quintana
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)