Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample3041.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 17.4
Model 18.7% Market 16.9% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market 81.3% Gap +16.8pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 6000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
90
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%51.6%
96
xBA0.375
95
xSLG0.630
86
xwOBA0.379
98
BB%10.6%
75 +40 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
82
K%17.5%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
75
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg22.0 · SS
100
Range Runs17.0 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs8.2 · SS
100
Bolts93.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate89.5% · SS
79
Sprint Speed30.1 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.2%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)