Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Corey Seager

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs MINBailey Ober
Sample4719.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 14.4
V 15.2
Model 19.4% Market 22.5% Gap -3.1pp
BetMGM 345 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 48.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.2% Market 46.8% Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 7000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
97
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%49.3%
93
xBA0.345
79
xSLG0.660
91
xwOBA0.350
92
BB%10.6%
75
Bat speed69.8
52
K%24.0%
44 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.4 · SS
37
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
80
Range Runs1.7 · SS
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · SS
5
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 14.5%
98
Correct Decisions72.3%
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.416
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)