Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Victor Scott II

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs MILDustin May
Sample709.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.2
F 0.0
V 10.5
Model 8.2% Market 7.7% Gap +0.2pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 50.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.5% Market 40.0% Gap +10.4pp
BetMGM 150 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.9%
3 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity79.5
2
Hard-hit%25.2%
7
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.412
17
xwOBA0.271
20
BB%8.1%
45
Bat speed61.7
1
K%23.2%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
33
Arm Strength91.3 · CF
28
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs3.3 · CF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · CF
69
Bolts31.0 · CF
83
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.255 to 0.333
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)