Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
38
Matched
168
Lineups
108
HR BOARD 2026-09-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 10.6%Valinor 9.3%market +1.0pp
P 14.4
F 15.3
V 10.6
4.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 5
 14.9%Valinor 13.5%market +0.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
03
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 3
 14.0%Valinor 13.0%market +0.5pp
P 12.7
F 14.5
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
04
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
 11.2%Valinor 11.0%market -0.2pp
P 15.4
F 15.3
V 11.2
4.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
05
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 13.5%Valinor 13.3%market -0.2pp
P 13.9
F 15.3
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
06
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 15.1%market -0.7pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 14.9
2.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
07
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 14.5%market -1.2pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 13.8
1.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
08
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 13.7%market -1.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
09
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 9.3%Valinor 10.7%market -1.8pp
P 10.5
F 8.9
V 9.3
1.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 800 avg 3 books
10
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 5
 10.3%Valinor 12.2%market -1.9pp
P 12.2
F 13.8
V 10.3
3.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
11
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 16.0%market -2.1pp
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
12
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 1
 11.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 5.0
F 7.3
V 11.2
6.3pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
13
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 1
 10.7%Valinor 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 5.1
F 6.0
V 10.7
5.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
14
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 10.5%Valinor 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 5.2
F 0.0
V 10.5
10.5pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
15
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 7.7%market +2.0pp
P 4.2
F 7.3
V 10.0
5.9pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
16
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 10.1%Valinor 8.7%market +1.1pp
P 7.7
F 11.6
V 10.1
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
17
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 12.5%market +1.0pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
18
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 12.0%market +0.3pp
P 10.4
F 12.2
V 12.7
2.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
19
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 6
 11.6%Valinor 11.8%market -0.2pp
P 10.2
F 13.8
V 11.6
3.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
20
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 17.4%Valinor 17.1%market -0.3pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 17.4
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
21
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 17.4%Valinor 17.1%market -0.3pp
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 17.4
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
22
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 13.1%market -0.4pp
P 10.9
F 11.6
V 12.7
1.8pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
23
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 17.5%Valinor 17.5%market -0.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 17.5
3.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
24
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 9.9%Valinor 10.6%market -1.1pp
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
9.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
25
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 6
 10.8%Valinor 12.1%market -1.3pp
P 9.1
F 0.0
V 10.8
10.8pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
26
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 13.7%market -1.6pp
P 14.3
F 15.3
V 12.7
2.5pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
27
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 14.0%Valinor 15.2%market -1.8pp
P 9.3
F 13.3
V 14.0
4.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
28
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 4
 10.1%Valinor 11.7%market -2.1pp
P 10.6
F 13.8
V 10.1
3.7pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.8
V 12.9
0.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
30
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 11.2%Valinor 13.4%market -2.7pp
P 13.1
F 14.4
V 11.2
3.2pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
31
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.6%Valinor 17.4%market -3.4pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.6
1.5pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
32
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 17.9%market -4.9pp
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 13.7
4.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
33
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 18.8%market -5.2pp
P 9.8
F 13.3
V 14.2
4.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
34
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
 15.3%Valinor 20.3%market -5.8pp
P 16.1
F 14.4
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
35
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 4
 14.1%Valinor 19.9%market -6.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.1
0.4pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
36
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 20.5%market -6.9pp
P 16.4
F 15.6
V 14.4
1.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
37
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 15.2%Valinor 22.0%market -7.6pp
P 14.0
F 14.4
V 15.2
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
38
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 12.6%Valinor 19.9%market -8.1pp
P 15.1
F 14.5
V 12.6
2.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

840 sample flags
Status1654roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.