Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample7050.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 17.5
Model 17.2% Market 17.5% Gap -0.9pp
DraftKings 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 33.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.2% Market 33.9% Gap +17.4pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 15000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
88
Exit velocity89.3
69
Hard-hit%43.0%
73
xBA0.315
46
xSLG0.552
67
xwOBA0.316
65 -17 vs proj
BB%4.0%
8
Bat speed70.1
58
K%19.0%
72 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
19
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
70
Framing Runs-6.5 · C
5
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · C
5
Pop Time2.0 · C
28
Range Runs-2.4 · C
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.2 · DH
7
Sprint Speed23.7 · DH
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.2%
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
77
Correct Decisions61.3%
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)