Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
38
Matched
168
Lineups
108
HR BOARD 2026-09-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 15.3%Fangorn 9.3%market +5.9pp
P 14.4
F 15.3
V 10.6
4.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
 15.3%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.3pp
P 15.4
F 15.3
V 11.2
4.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 5
 13.8%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.1pp
P 12.2
F 13.8
V 10.3
3.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
04
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 15.3%Fangorn 13.3%market +2.0pp
P 13.9
F 15.3
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
05
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 3
 14.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +1.6pp
P 12.7
F 14.5
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 15.3%Fangorn 14.4%market +0.9pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 13.8
1.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
07
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 15.6%Fangorn 14.9%market +0.7pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 14.9
2.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
08
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
09
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.9pp
P 12.4
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 15.3%Fangorn 16.4%market -1.1pp
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
11
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 8.9%Fangorn 11.1%market -2.2pp
P 10.5
F 8.9
V 9.3
1.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
12
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 11.6%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.9pp
P 7.7
F 11.6
V 10.1
3.9pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
13
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 15.3%Fangorn 12.5%market +2.8pp
P 15.7
F 15.3
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 6
 13.8%Fangorn 11.3%market +2.5pp
P 10.2
F 13.8
V 11.6
3.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
15
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.1pp
P 10.6
F 13.8
V 10.1
3.7pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
16
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 15.3%Fangorn 13.7%market +1.5pp
P 14.3
F 15.3
V 12.7
2.5pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
17
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 14.4%Fangorn 13.4%market +1.1pp
P 13.1
F 14.4
V 11.2
3.2pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
18
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
 12.2%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.3pp
P 10.4
F 12.2
V 12.7
2.4pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
19
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 7.3%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.7pp
P 4.2
F 7.3
V 10.0
5.9pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
20
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs COLJose Quintana · slot 1
 7.3%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.7pp
P 5.0
F 7.3
V 11.2
6.3pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
21
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 11.6%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.5pp
P 10.9
F 11.6
V 12.7
1.8pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
22
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.8
V 12.9
0.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
23
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 1
 6.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -2.0pp
P 5.1
F 6.0
V 10.7
5.6pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
24
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 15.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.1pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 17.4
1.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
25
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.4pp
P 9.3
F 13.3
V 14.0
4.6pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
26
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 13.7
4.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
27
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.5%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.5pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.6
1.5pp 0.881xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
28
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 13.8%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.8
V 17.4
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
29
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 17.5
3.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
30
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.5pp
P 16.4
F 15.6
V 14.4
1.9pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
31
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 14.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -5.9pp
P 15.1
F 14.5
V 12.6
2.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
32
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 9.8
F 13.3
V 14.2
4.4pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
33
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
 14.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.4pp
P 16.1
F 14.4
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
34
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 4
 13.8%Fangorn 20.4%market -6.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 14.1
0.4pp 0.899xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
35
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 5.2
F 0.0
V 10.5
10.5pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
36
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 14.4%Fangorn 22.5%market -8.0pp
P 14.0
F 14.4
V 15.2
1.2pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
37
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 11.0%market -11.0pp
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 9.9
9.9pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
38
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs LADBlake Snell · slot 6
 0.0%Fangorn 12.1%market -12.1pp
P 9.1
F 0.0
V 10.8
10.8pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

840 sample flags
Status1654roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.