Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter
IL60 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs LADBlake Snell
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 15.3
V 12.8
Model 16.8% Market 15.9% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 505 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 51.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.6% Market 34.5% Gap +16.8pp
BetMGM 190 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%36.7%
42
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.435
26
xwOBA0.286
31
BB%10.4%
74
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
67
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
30
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
68
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
46
Correct Decisions70.1%
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)