Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Daniel Schneemann

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample830.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 8.9
V 9.3
Model 14.5% Market 10.6% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 810 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.7% Market 60.0% Gap +8.1pp
BetMGM -150 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
50
Exit velocity87.8
49
Hard-hit%36.6%
42 -20 vs proj
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.533
59
xwOBA0.287
32 -21 vs proj
BB%8.4%
51
Bat speed69.5
47
K%29.7%
18
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
73
Arm Strength99.4 · 3B
99
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
85
Range Runs4.9 · 3B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate66.7% · 3B
19
Sprint Speed27.6 · 3B
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.260 to 0.357
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)