Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample2359.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 15.3
V 10.6
Model 13.8% Market 9.3% Gap +4.2pp
DraftKings 935 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +16.8pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
14 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity85.7
26
Hard-hit%32.3%
24
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.420
20
xwOBA0.332
79
BB%14.0%
96
Bat speed63.6
4
K%12.5%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · SS
88
Arm Strength93.2 · SS
89
Outs Above Avg15.0 · SS
98
Range Runs11.3 · SS
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · SS
41
SB Success Rate72.0% · SS
31
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
38
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1%
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3%
16
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.328 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)