Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Brent Rooker

ATH · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL60 · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 15.3
V 16.0
Model 21.6% Market 20.4% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.4% Market 78.5% Gap +16.6pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
98
Exit velocity90.0
78
Hard-hit%43.0%
73 -17 vs proj
xBA0.325
58
xSLG0.684
94
xwOBA0.312
60 -35 vs proj
BB%8.8%
55
Bat speed72.5
84
K%30.2%
16 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
70 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · DH
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)