Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample1647.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 12.2
V 12.7
Model 14.8% Market 12.0% Gap +2.4pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 25.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.0% Market 46.8% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
46 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
44
Hard-hit%34.5%
32 -36 vs proj
xBA0.318
52
xSLG0.468
38
xwOBA0.244
7 -19 vs proj
BB%5.8%
21
Bat speed69.9
54
K%30.8%
14 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
34
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
86
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs-0.3 · CF
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · CF
37
Bolts12.0 · CF
66
SB Success Rate76.5% · CF
37
Sprint Speed29.2 · CF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.251 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.257 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.083
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)