Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample2841.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.7
F 11.6
V 10.1
Model 10.1% Market 8.7% Gap +1.1pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 23.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.8% Market 25.0% Gap +29.9pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 4000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.3%
2
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%10.6%
0
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.388
10
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%13.9%
96 +49 vs proj
Bat speed60.1
0
K%10.0%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
66
Arm Strength92.4 · CF
40
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
88
Range Runs6.5 · CF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
50
Bolts1.0 · CF
11
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
19
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.6%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.6%
11
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)