Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Byron Buxton

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 14.4
Model 15.8% Market 21.1% Gap -5.2pp
BetMGM 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.6% Market 74.7% Gap +15.8pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.0%
99
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%47.1%
87
xBA0.340
75
xSLG0.669
93
xwOBA0.343
88
BB%7.7%
40
Bat speed72.5
84
K%24.6%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
19
Arm Strength95.9 · CF
66
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
92
Range Runs2.7 · CF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
46
Bolts36.0 · CF
86
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
97
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9%
87
Correct Decisions66.9%
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.373 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)