Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-28 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-28
0 activated plays
Gap rows 162
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-29 Older: 2026-05-26

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Brandon Nimmo

Play

TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti

Value Score 28.1
Odds / Gap +515 / +4.88%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.037x

Value Rank #2

Wyatt Langford

Play

TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti

Value Score 23.6
Odds / Gap +570 / +5.23%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.037x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+6.79%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+6.67%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+6.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+6.77%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+6.70%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+6.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+5.77%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+5.70%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+5.70%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.23%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+5.12%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+5.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+5.21%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.14%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+5.17%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+5.10%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+5.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.17%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.17%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.98%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.89%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+4.88%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+4.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+4.61%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.86%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.80%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+4.46%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+3.33%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-7.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.25%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.17%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+4.25%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+4.11%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+4.06%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+3.50%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.50%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+3.49%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+3.37%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+3.21%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+3.07%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+3.10%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+3.00%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.03%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.90%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.78%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+2.67%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+1.64%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-6.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.03%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.73%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+2.02%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+1.88%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.84%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.71%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.71%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.65%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+1.65%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.62%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.74%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-4.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+1.61%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+1.45%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+1.37%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+1.60%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.48%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.54%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+1.19%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+1.37%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+1.29%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+1.33%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.21%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+1.27%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.35%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-4.60%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.19%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.05%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.95%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.79%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.62%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+0.94%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+0.94%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.61%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.30%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+0.18%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+0.06%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+0.06%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.12%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-0.82%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+0.01%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-1.19%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.30%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.45%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.61%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
-0.53%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-0.65%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-0.65%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.2
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.58%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-1.47%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-2.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-0.58%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.72%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-0.87%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.60%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.60%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.60%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.5
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.66%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.87%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.09%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-0.79%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.15%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.05%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.94%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.17%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.68%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.18%
15.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.82%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-2.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.25%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.75%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.4
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.40%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.71%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.40%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.40%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.40%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.1
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.54%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.64%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.58%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.62%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-1.59%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-1.70%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-1.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%