{
  "date": "2026-05-28",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-27T23:35:13.400357",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 81,
    "odds_matched_count": 50,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 11,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822896,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2227,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1997,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824834,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2061,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2308,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2063,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824834,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2122,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1913,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.56,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
      "hitter_id": 641933,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824834,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1994,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1809,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_id": 514888,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822896,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2064,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1866,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.95,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes",
      "hitter_id": 670623,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822896,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 530,
      "over_odds": 530,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1949,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1772,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1996,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2061,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1912,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.56
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Tyler O'Neill",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1808,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.24
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.95
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 530,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.73
      }
    ]
  }
}