Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-08 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-08
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-09 Older: 2026-06-07

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock

Value Score 34.3
Odds / Gap +710 / +7.65%
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.004x

Value Rank #2

William Contreras

Strong

MIL vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs

Value Score 34.0
Odds / Gap +645 / +7.31%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.050x

Value Rank #3

Gunnar Henderson

Lean

BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock

Value Score 30.6
Odds / Gap +455 / +3.84%
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.004x

Value Rank #4

Cody Bellinger

Lean

NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams

Value Score 20.3
Odds / Gap +470 / +2.71%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.034x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+7.65%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+7.65%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+7.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.34%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.34%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.63%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.16%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+7.31%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+7.31%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.97%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.85%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+5.87%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+5.74%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.41%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+5.41%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
+3.93%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-8.39%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.86%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+4.86%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.2
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+4.75%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+4.62%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+4.57%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+4.66%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.50%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+4.41%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.59%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+4.48%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.33%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.33%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.13%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.00%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.88%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+4.03%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.87%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+3.82%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+3.91%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+2.69%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-7.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+3.84%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+3.51%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+3.72%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+3.56%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.48%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.71%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.58%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.58%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+3.40%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+3.29%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+3.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.29%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.20%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.06%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.06%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+2.96%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.85%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.76%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.84%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.76%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.71%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.39%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.70%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.62%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.47%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.46%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+2.18%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+2.05%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+2.00%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.5
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+2.14%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+2.03%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+2.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+1.82%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.70%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.70%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.73%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.57%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+1.68%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+1.68%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.41%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+1.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.99%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.41%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.28%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.28%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+1.25%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+1.09%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+0.93%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.18%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.18%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.18%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+1.02%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+0.91%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+0.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.90%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.61%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.78%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.63%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.47%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+0.61%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+0.50%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+0.45%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+0.47%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+0.40%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+0.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.7
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.32%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.56%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.25%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.25%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.6
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.21%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.08%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.16%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.19%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.01%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.30%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-0.05%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-0.36%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.07%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.03%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.32%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-0.16%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-0.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.67%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.20%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.35%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.50%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.30%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.43%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.31%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.50%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.69%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.32%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.68%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs TOR | Patrick Corbin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.41%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.59%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
-0.77%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.44%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.75%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.75%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.62%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.73%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.03%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
-1.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.74%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.91%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-1.08%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SEA | Emerson Hancock | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-0.86%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.95%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.02%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.45%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.30%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-1.54%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.75%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.32%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.86%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 394
Latest Date 2026-06-17
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%